July CPI Report Could Reset Fed Rate Path, Bitcoin Reaction

One number lands Wednesday morning, and Wall Street can't agree on what happens next. The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is set to hit markets with September Federal Reserve rate odds split almost exactly down the middle — and traders across stocks, bonds, and crypto are bracing for whichever way it breaks. Key Fact: CME FedWatch data shows a 50.1% chance the Fed holds rates in September versus a 49.9% chance it hikes — a near-perfect coin flip. A Coin-Flip Moment for the Fed That razor-thin split marks a sharp shift from just a week ago, when hike bets stood closer to 58%. A soft CPI print could lift stocks, bonds, and crypto together as rate-hike fears ease. A hot print, on the other hand, could corner the Fed's new chair and revive tightening bets that markets had largely started to move past. Forecasters are leaning toward a mild report. A Wall Street Journal survey of 15 banks puts July headline inflation at 0.12% month-over-month, or 3.4% year-over-year...