XRP slid into the red over the past month while most major tokens posted modest gains, briefly breaking below $1 for the first time since late 2024. Beneath that price weakness, on-chain data reveals a sharp divergence: large holders keep accumulating even as spot ETF inflows stall and exchange traders lean toward selling.

A Notable Price Break

XRP's dip below $1 marks a psychologically significant moment for the token, snapping a streak that had held since late 2024. The weakness isn't limited to a single bad day: XRP has dropped more than 5% over the past 30 days and more than 3% over the past week, making it one of the worst performers among major tokens during this stretch.

Among the top 10 cryptocurrencies, XRP posted the second-steepest monthly decline. Hyperliquid dropped about 10%, and Dogecoin fell roughly 2%. By contrast, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana all held onto modest gains over the same period — underscoring that XRP's slide is a token-specific story rather than a broad market pullback.

Whales Keep Buying Through the Slide

On-chain analytics firm Santiment reports that large holders kept buying throughout the price decline. The cohort of wallets holding at least 1 million XRP grew by 32 over the past three months — a meaningful accumulation trend given that it occurred while the token's overall market value dropped by double digits.

Santiment framed this pattern as a sign of conviction among larger holders, noting that when million-XRP wallets increase while market cap falls, it typically signals that stronger-handed investors are absorbing the panic selling from smaller, more reactive holders. That kind of quiet accumulation during a downturn is often read as a bullish signal by on-chain analysts, since it suggests reduced selling pressure among the token's most committed holders.

Exchange Data Reinforces the Pattern

Data from CryptoOnchain adds another layer to the accumulation story. Binance deposit addresses fell by about 96% relative to both monthly and quarterly norms, while inflows and outflows dropped by 79% and 85% respectively versus their 90-day averages. In plain terms: XRP holders aren't moving their coins to exchanges — a behavior typically associated with an intent to sell.

The analyst behind that data described the network as highly active, yet noted coins simply aren't flowing toward exchanges to be sold, reinforcing the idea that current holders are choosing to sit tight rather than capitulate during the price weakness.

Network Activity Is Rising — But With a Catch

Santiment also points to rising network usage as a supporting signal. Active addresses averaged about 35,700 per day in August, up meaningfully from 26,400 in July, with August 11 marking the busiest day for the network since June 5. On the surface, that looks like a clear sign of growing engagement with the XRP network during the price dip.

However, the picture is more nuanced than a simple growth story. Santiment notes that new address creation held essentially flat, near 2,260 per day in August compared to 2,270 in July — meaning the increase in activity is coming from the existing user base transacting more often, not from new users joining the network. As Santiment put it, the "rising user activity" framing is only half right: the existing base is more active, but the wallet count isn't growing alongside it.

Derivatives and Order Flow Tell a Different Story

Not every data point supports the bullish accumulation narrative. Derivatives flows on Binance currently skew toward sellers, with the taker buy/sell ratio falling to about 0.86 — its lowest reading since May. Analyst commentary from Arab Chain explained that a reading below 1 indicates sell order volume is currently outpacing buy order volume among traders executing direct trades, reflecting clear selling pressure in the derivatives market.

Cumulative volume delta (CVD) data backs up this reading. The metric currently sits near -4.15 million despite maintaining a 0.84 correlation with price — a combination one analyst described as unusual, since it suggests that even though CVD and price are moving together directionally, the underlying flow of trading activity remains skewed toward selling. In other words, buyer activity hasn't yet been strong enough to shift the balance of market flows into positive territory, despite the accumulation happening at the whale level.

Institutional Demand Has Stalled

The institutional side of the story is arguably the most concerning for XRP bulls. US spot XRP ETFs logged zero net flow in each of their last four trading sessions, and this month's total inflows sit at just $1 million through August 12, according to SoSoValue data — a sharp slowdown from earlier momentum.

The weekly numbers make the deceleration even clearer. XRP ETFs drew roughly $1.01 million in the week ending August 7, down approximately 93% from $14.86 million the week before. That kind of sudden drop-off in institutional demand stands in stark contrast to the steady whale accumulation happening on-chain, highlighting a genuine split between how large individual holders and institutional fund flows are currently treating XRP.

What Would Confirm a Turnaround

The path forward for XRP hinges on whether these conflicting signals converge. A sustained return of ETF inflows would indicate institutions are stepping back in, while a shift in Binance exchange flows back toward net buying would help confirm that retail and trader sentiment is also turning. Until one or both of those shifts materialize, XRP's on-chain conviction and its price action will likely keep pulling in opposite directions — whales accumulating quietly while the broader market price continues to reflect near-term selling pressure.

Why It Matters

XRP's situation offers a useful case study in how on-chain accumulation and price action can diverge sharply during a downturn. While whale accumulation and reduced exchange inflows both suggest reduced panic selling among committed holders, the stalled ETF demand and negative derivatives positioning show that broader market conviction hasn't caught up yet. Whether XRP's break below $1 marks a bottom or an ongoing waypoint lower will likely depend on which of these competing signals resolves first.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Do your own research.